一套理解選擇與勝率的思考方式。 A framework for understanding choices and odds.
麻將是運氣。撲克是技巧。劇場是表演。廣告是操控。塔羅是玄學。Mahjong is luck. Poker is skill. Theater is performance. Advertising is manipulation. Tarot is mysticism.
看起來彼此無關。Seemingly unrelated.
但我後來發現 這些東西其實在處理同一件事：人如何在不確定中做選擇。But I eventually realized they all deal with the same thing: how people make choices under uncertainty.
也許是因為歷史系的訓練吧 讓我習慣把看似無關的東西找到一個框架。也許只是我想太多（大概是）。但做了二十幾年的行銷、打了不知道多少手撲克、排了三十年的戲之後 我越來越覺得 這些事情的底層邏輯是一樣的。Maybe it's my history degree — it trained me to find frameworks connecting seemingly unrelated things. Or maybe I just overthink (probably). But after 20+ years in marketing, countless poker hands, and 30 years of theater, I'm increasingly convinced the underlying logic is the same.
· 決策 = 在不完整資訊下做選擇· Decision = choosing with incomplete information
· 決策不只理性 還包含情緒與直覺· Decisions aren't just rational — they include emotion and intuition
· 多數錯誤決策 來自錯誤理解 而不是能力不足· Most bad decisions come from misunderstanding, not lack of ability
· 決策 不是找對答案 而是提高勝率· Decision-making isn't about finding right answers — it's about improving odds
如果要用一句話定義：決策 是在不完整資訊下 做出選擇的過程。In one sentence: Decision-making is the process of choosing with incomplete information.
關鍵不在「你知不知道答案」。而在「你不知道完整答案時 怎麼選」。The key isn't whether you know the answer. It's how you choose when you don't have the full picture.
就像我在部落格寫過的 你待錯了一間公司 浪費的是你自己生命的時間。但當下你怎麼知道是不是待錯了呢？你不知道。你只能用你手上的資訊去判斷。As I once wrote on my blog — staying at the wrong company wastes your own life's time. But how do you know it's the wrong one? You don't. You can only judge with the information you have.
所以呢？So?
每一次決定 其實同時在處理五件事。不管你有沒有意識到。Every decision simultaneously involves five things. Whether you realize it or not.
資訊——你知道什麼。撲克桌上你只看得到自己的牌和公牌 對手的底牌永遠是未知。人生也差不多。Information — what you know. At the poker table, you only see your cards and the community cards. Your opponent's hole cards are always unknown. Life is pretty much the same.
機率——可能發生什麼。不是猜 是算。但算完了還是有不確定性 所以才叫機率而不叫答案。Probability — what might happen. Not guessing — calculating. But even after calculating, uncertainty remains. That's why it's called probability, not certainty.
情境——當下的局勢。一樣的牌 在不同的位置、不同的對手、不同的籌碼深度 打法完全不同。麻將也是 同樣的手牌 不同的風位 選擇就不一樣。Context — the current situation. The same hand plays completely differently depending on position, opponents, stack depth. Same in mahjong — same tiles, different seat wind, different choices.
情緒——你的心理狀態。這個最多人忽略。我在劇場學到的最重要的事就是 人其實不太理性。情緒可以被節奏、語氣、情境設計出來。你以為你在理性分析 其實你在被情緒推著走。Emotion — your psychological state. Most overlooked. The most important thing theater taught me is that people aren't very rational. Emotions can be engineered through rhythm, tone, context. You think you're analyzing rationally — you're actually being pushed by emotions.
直覺——潛意識的判斷。塔羅教我的事：當資訊不足時 人會用直覺補空白。直覺不是瞎猜 它是被壓縮的經驗值。但你要知道它是直覺 不是事實。Intuition — subconscious judgment. What tarot taught me: when information is insufficient, people fill gaps with intuition. Intuition isn't random guessing — it's compressed experience. But you need to know it's intuition, not fact.
問題通常不在能力 而在理解。The problem usually isn't ability — it's understanding.
以為自己很理性 其實被情緒帶著走。以為在用經驗 其實忽略了環境已經變了。以為是運氣問題 其實是錯判了局勢。Thinking you're rational when emotions are driving. Thinking you're using experience when the environment has changed. Thinking it's bad luck when you misread the situation.
我以前也是這樣。開始在一家算命網站工作 然後去了遊戲業 中間換了不少家 該買車就買車 該買房就買房 還真的都沒什麼計畫性的活著。回頭看 每一步都是決策 只是當下不覺得。I used to be the same way. Started at a fortune-telling website, moved to gaming, changed companies several times. Bought a car when it was time, bought a place when it was time. No real plan. Looking back, every step was a decision — I just didn't see it that way at the time.
是不是太急躁 是不是太放鬆 是不是太樂觀 是不是太自以為是——我在〈反省〉那篇文章裡寫過這段。那些反問不是在找答案 是在拆解自己做決策時的盲點。Am I too hasty, too relaxed, too optimistic, too self-assured — I wrote this in an essay called "Reflection." Those questions weren't searching for answers. They were dissecting blind spots in my own decision-making.
我用五個看起來不相關的領域 去理解決策的不同面向。每個領域訓練的是不同的「決策肌肉」。I use five seemingly unrelated fields to understand different aspects of decision-making. Each trains a different "decision muscle."
撲克訓練機率。麻將訓練情境。劇場揭露情緒。廣告示範誘導。塔羅補足直覺。Poker trains probability. Mahjong trains context. Theater reveals emotion. Advertising demonstrates influence. Tarot supplements intuition.
選工作、投資、關係 本質都一樣：資訊不完整 有風險 有情緒 有外部影響。差別只在於 你有沒有意識到。Choosing a job, investing, relationships — fundamentally the same: incomplete information, risk, emotions, external influence. The only difference is whether you're aware of it.
決策不是單一能力 而是多系統交互的結果。Decision-making isn't a single ability — it's the result of multiple systems interacting.
就像我40歲那年寫的：想起年輕時李宗盛的歌 30歲就快來 已都在唱 40歲就快來。往後的日子 怎麼對自己交待？其實沒有標準答案。你只能用一個比較好的方式去面對每一次選擇。As I wrote when I turned 40: remembering Jonathan Lee's songs from my youth — "30 is coming soon" was already playing, then "40 is coming soon." How do you account for the days ahead? There's no standard answer. You can only face each choice in a better way.
我現在比較不會去想「怎麼做出正確決定」。I don't really think about "how to make the right decision" anymore.
我比較在意的是：在不確定的情況下 我有沒有用一個比較好的方式去做決定。What I care about is: in uncertain situations, am I using a better process to decide.
50歲時會變得怎樣 我也不知道。也不像以夢想做為主要價值觀的人去努力。但我總是會想著 有些事情 我還真做不了。What will I be like at 50? I don't know. I'm not the type to chase dreams as a primary value either. But I always think — some things, I really just can't do.
好吧~Oh well~