整合資源與消耗資源是同樣重要的事情。從 SF Online 到手遊時代，每一次行銷都是一場不確定性中的資源決策。 Integrating and spending resources are equally important. From SF Online to the mobile era, every campaign is a resource decision under uncertainty.
我做行銷這件事，算算也做了快二十年。I've been doing marketing for close to twenty years now.
一開始我以為行銷就是打廣告。後來發現不是。再後來發現，其實也沒有人真的知道行銷是什麼。大家都在猜，只是有人猜對的比較多次而已。At first I thought marketing was just advertising. Later I realized it wasn't. Even later, I realized nobody truly knows what marketing is. Everyone's just guessing — some people just guess right more often.
這三句話是2008年我寫在「What is saomin Think!」部落格裡的。那時候剛在遊戲公司做行銷，覺得自己好像懂了什麼。現在回頭看，好吧，也沒有太離譜。只是當年用「騙」這個字，現在可能會被公關部門殺掉。I wrote these three lines in 2008 on my blog "What is saomin Think!" — back when I was doing marketing at a game company and thought I understood something. Looking back now, well, it wasn't too far off. Though using the word "lure" today would probably get me killed by the PR department.
但重點不在用什麼字。重點在：行銷本質上是一種決策。你不知道這個故事觀眾會不會買單。你不知道這筆預算花下去回不回得來。你不知道今天選的這條路，三個月後看起來是聰明還是愚蠢。你只能在有限的資訊裡，做一個你當下認為最好的選擇。But the word choice isn't the point. The point is: marketing is fundamentally a decision. You don't know if the audience will buy your story. You don't know if the budget will come back. You don't know if the path you choose today will look smart or stupid in three months. All you can do is make the best choice with limited information.
跟撲克牌一樣。Just like poker.
這個框架也是2008年寫下來的。不算什麼了不起的東西——任何行銷教科書大概都會教差不多的事。但問題是，教科書不會告訴你每個步驟裡面有多少不確定性。This framework was written down in 2008 too. Nothing groundbreaking — any marketing textbook teaches roughly the same thing. But the textbook won't tell you how much uncertainty lives inside each step.
六個步驟，每一步都是決策。而且是不可逆的那種——預算花了就回不來，檔期過了就沒有了，玩家的第一印象一旦建立就很難翻轉。Six steps, each one a decision. Irreversible ones — spent budgets don't come back, launch windows close, and first impressions are nearly impossible to reverse.
這讓我想到一件事：行銷人最害怕的不是做錯決策。最害怕的是做完決策之後，不知道它到底是對是錯。Which brings up something: what marketers fear most isn't making the wrong decision. It's making a decision and not knowing whether it was right or wrong.
2007到2009年之間，我經手了五支線上遊戲的行銷。每一支都不一樣，每一支都是在資訊不完整的情況下做的選擇。有的成功了，有的——好吧，也不能說失敗，只是結果跟預期不太一樣。Between 2007 and 2009, I handled marketing for five online games. Each was different, each was a choice made with incomplete information. Some succeeded, some — well, I wouldn't say failed, the results were just... different from expectations.
TA 很明確：15-22歲男生，以「優質台客」為主要描述。騎摩托車、喜歡運動跟打工跟女人跟朋友。喜歡免費的東西。喜歡制服美少女。我們的工作就是把遊戲包裝成他們生活的延伸——校園、KUSO、暴力，但不是真的暴力，是一種感覺。The TA was clear: 15-22 year old males, "quality Taiwanese youth." Rides scooters, into sports and part-time jobs and girls and friends. Likes free stuff. Likes girls in uniforms. Our job was to package the game as an extension of their life — campus, absurdist, violent but not really violent. A vibe.
12-19歲，非都會區，國高中生。每個大人心中都住著一個小孩，現實中每個小孩卻都想趕快變成大人。跨越朋友與戀人的界線，需要無比勇氣——所以我們把遊戲變成了一個關於勇氣的故事。電視廣告拍了愛情短片，勇氣卡可以傳給暗戀對象，像傳小紙條一樣。Ages 12-19, non-metropolitan, junior and senior high schoolers. Every adult has a child living inside them, yet every child wants to grow up fast. Crossing the line between friends and lovers takes courage — so we turned the game into a story about courage. The TV ad was a love short film, courage cards could be sent to crushes, like passing notes in class.
這支遊戲原本叫另一個名字，但台灣市場已經有封神、真封神一堆類似的了，怎麼辦？我們做了一個決定：改名叫三太子。因為三太子在台灣民間信仰中極受歡迎。信三太子的人，多為我們的主要市場族群——15-20歲，非都會區，騎機車，說台語比國語多。所以行銷變成了一種宗教操作：「有玩有保庇，永久免費玩」「相招好朋友，保庇賺大錢」。上市發表會結合廟會，公益活動叫做「作功德」。This game originally had a different name, but Taiwan already had multiple similar titles. So we made a decision: rename it Third Prince — one of the most beloved folk deities in Taiwan. Worshippers matched our core TA perfectly: 15-20 males, non-metropolitan, rides scooters, speaks more Taiwanese than Mandarin. So marketing became religious practice: "Play with blessings, free forever" and "Bring friends, blessings bring fortune." The launch event merged with temple culture. Charity work became "making merit."
請用台灣國語來念「Taiwan Number One」——台灣那巴丸。如同金庸「武林至尊、寶刀屠龍」，SF 在說一個天下第一的故事。宣傳遊戲就是宣傳比賽，所有訊息一定帶到競賽。最終目標是創造一個職業遊戲聯盟——先個人賽降低門檻，再推團體賽建立隊伍。讓聯盟獲利，讓參與的人獲利。Say "Taiwan Number One" in Taiwanese-accented Mandarin — "Taiwan na ba wan." Like Jin Yong's "supreme martial artist, dragon-slaying saber," SF told a story about being the best. Promoting the game was promoting the competition — every message tied back to the league. The ultimate goal: a professional gaming league. Start with individual matches to lower the barrier, then team competitions. Make the league profitable, make participants profitable.
25-35歲，白領加藍領，中南部。這支遊戲我們做了幾個大膽的決定：把「內掛」正當化（強調玩遊戲不被遊戲玩的概念）、小公主大募集（暗示有女生在遊戲中）、電視廣告是一個被 SM 綁起來的法師裝扮女生喊著「快來異魔界救我～」。文案很直白：救美眉、砍小白、玩不要錢。現在回頭看，這些操作爭議很大。但在那個年代，爭議本身就是一種注意力資源。Ages 25-35, white-collar plus blue-collar, central and southern Taiwan. We made several bold calls: legitimized auto-play bots (emphasizing "play the game, don't let the game play you"), recruited "game princesses," and aired a TV ad featuring a girl tied up in SM-style calling "come save me in MWO~". The copy was blunt: save girls, kill noobs, play free. Looking back, these were highly controversial. But back then, controversy itself was an attention resource.
五支遊戲看下來，有一件事變得很清楚：沒有一個行銷決策是在資訊完整的情況下做的。你猜 TA 會喜歡什麼，你猜媒體會報導什麼，你猜競爭對手會怎麼反應。然後你把預算壓上去。就像簽一支代理遊戲的約——問我簽約金怎麼評估？答案是猜。用喊的，要不就不要簽，然後上線了再見生死。Looking across all five games, one thing becomes clear: no marketing decision is made with complete information. You guess what the TA will like, guess what media will cover, guess how competitors will react. Then you put the budget on the line. Like signing a game distribution deal — how to evaluate the signing fee? The answer is: guess. Shout a number, take it or leave it, then see who lives and who dies after launch.
做行銷那幾年，我讀了不少書。不是為了學行銷——是因為我不確定自己做的事情到底對不對。During those marketing years, I read a lot. Not to learn marketing — because I wasn't sure if what I was doing was right.
《隱藏的邏輯》說：「我們通常覺得是自己在做決定，但我們事實上有點像企鵝，缺乏資訊的時候，我們會觀察別人，盡量蒐集片段的資料……模仿別人怎麼做。」做行銷的人天天在利用這件事——但也天天受這件事影響。我們自以為在做的創意決策，有多少其實只是在模仿業界慣例？"The Social Atom" says: "We usually think we're making our own decisions, but we're actually a bit like penguins — when we lack information, we observe others, collect fragments... and copy what they do." Marketers exploit this every day — but are also subject to it every day. How many of our supposedly creative decisions are just mimicking industry conventions?
平野秀典演過十年劇場，跟我的背景有點像。他說商業上讓客戶「感動」比讓客戶「滿意」更重要。感動怎麼創造？控制期望、配合對象的感知模式。簡單來說：別做出自己辦不到的承諾。說故事的順序是「序破急」——「咦？」「哇！」「是哦～」。好的電視廣告大多可以這麼分析。Hirano Hidenori performed theater for ten years — similar background to mine. He says in business, making customers "moved" matters more than making them "satisfied." How to create that? Control expectations, match their perception mode. Simply: don't promise what you can't deliver. Storytelling follows "jo-ha-kyū" — "Huh?" "Wow!" "Oh~". Most good TV ads follow this pattern.
「行銷是針對顧客『想要的』，而不是『需要的』的東西。」玩遊戲好像也沒什麼必要性——那玩家為什麼「想要」玩？如果我們拿得到像魔獸一樣的遊戲，簽約金又很低，風險很小，幹嘛花一堆腦筋想怎麼包裝？所以換個角度想，是不是我們對自己拿到的產品信心低落？"Marketing is about what customers 'want,' not what they 'need.'" Playing games isn't exactly a necessity — so why do players 'want' to play? If we had a game like World of Warcraft with a low signing fee and minimal risk, why bother thinking about packaging? So flip the perspective — maybe our confidence in our own product was low?
讀完那些書，我反省了很多事。如果從開始學著當一個管理者到現在，有成功也有失敗的例子，我也沒法了解是怎麼一回事。不過，至少面對了很多我之前不太肯面對的事情。After reading those books, I reflected on a lot. From learning to be a manager to now, successes and failures — I still can't fully explain them. But at least I faced things I hadn't been willing to face before.
做了二十年行銷，我最後的體會是：行銷不是一門科學。它比較像是一種在不確定中做判斷的能力。After twenty years in marketing, my ultimate takeaway is: marketing is not a science. It's more like a capacity for judgment under uncertainty.
你分析了 TA，但你不確定他們真的是你以為的那群人。你擬定了策略，但你不確定市場會不會在下個月改變。你投了預算，但你不確定是不是花在對的地方。你做了電視廣告，但你不確定有沒有人真的在看——Seth Godin 說電視已經沒什麼大不了了，但台灣還是前五名相信電視廣告的地方。You analyze the TA, but you're not sure they're really who you think they are. You set a strategy, but you're not sure the market won't shift next month. You spend the budget, but you're not sure it's in the right place. You make a TV ad, but you're not sure anyone's watching — Seth Godin says TV doesn't matter anymore, but Taiwan's still top five in TV ad trust.
這跟撲克桌上的道理是一樣的。你用已知資訊做最好的判斷，然後承擔結果。差別只在行銷桌上的籌碼是公司的預算和你的職業生涯。Same logic as the poker table. You make the best judgment with known information, then accept the outcome. The only difference is that the chips on the marketing table are the company's budget and your career.
媒體的本質就是左手發新聞、右手收廣告。在 Web 2.0 的時代，使用者自己發新聞自己傳播訊息，「大媒體中心」的位置只會不斷被減弱。價值在意見的串聯散佈——而做這件事的是重度使用者。如果你的 TA 不在重度使用者那裡，做行銷的人應該就很清楚資源要放在哪了。Media's nature: news on the left hand, ads on the right. In the Web 2.0 era, users create and spread their own news — the "big media center" keeps losing ground. Value lies in opinion networks — and heavy users drive those. If your TA isn't among heavy users, any marketer should know where to put resources.
小作的遊戲重度玩家看不上眼。大作的遊戲只靠重度玩家吃不飽肚子。Small games get ignored by hardcore players. Big games can't survive on hardcore players alone.
所以決策永遠在中間地帶。永遠不完美。永遠在猜。So the decision always lives in the middle ground. Always imperfect. Always guessing.
2008年的某一天，我寫了一篇文章叫〈三十歲前和三十歲後的差別是什麼？〉。那時候我剛跟幾個人一起創立了三十數位科技。One day in 2008, I wrote a piece called "What's the difference between before and after thirty?" I had just co-founded Thirty Digital Technology.
早上八點起床，吃路邊美而美的早餐，騎車在台北市馬路上奮鬥來到公司。櫃台的美眉還是很可愛。坐在辦公桌前還沒來得及回神，老闆已經叫人開會。完全不知道做這些事的意義在哪。Wake up at 8, eat breakfast from a street vendor, battle through Taipei traffic on a scooter. The receptionist is still cute. Before I can settle in, the boss calls a meeting. No idea what any of it means.
就是因為不想這樣過下去，所以我們創立了三十數位科技。期待自己的生活會有一點點不一樣。可以賺更多一點錢、得到更多一點工作上的成就感、有更大一點發揮的空間。It was because we didn't want to keep living like that — so we founded Thirty Digital. Hoping life would be a little different. A bit more money, a bit more fulfillment, a bit more room to grow.
這裡沒有絕對性的命令讓你變成傀儡，也沒有把創意留在人事鬥爭，更沒有無意義的工作只為了滿足你的上班時數。No absolute orders turning you into a puppet. No creativity wasted on office politics. No meaningless work just to fill hours.
那是2008年。到了2026年的現在，我已經離開遊戲業很久了。但行銷教我的那些事——在不確定中做選擇、承擔結果、從結果中學到下次怎麼猜得更準一點——這些東西一直都在。That was 2008. By 2026, I've been out of gaming for a long time. But what marketing taught me — choosing under uncertainty, accepting outcomes, learning to guess better next time — those things never left.
不管你是在遊戲公司做行銷、在劇場裡做戲、還是在牌桌上做決定，核心都一樣：你永遠沒有足夠的資訊，但你必須做選擇。Whether you're doing marketing at a game company, making theater, or deciding at the poker table — the core is the same: you never have enough information, but you must choose.